The 2006-2011 World Outlook for Shovels, Spades, Scoops, Telegraph Spoons, and Scrapers

!±8± The 2006-2011 World Outlook for Shovels, Spades, Scoops, Telegraph Spoons, and Scrapers

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WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?

The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).

The latent demand for shovels, spades, scoops, telegraph spoons, and scrapers is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a country market.

For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in t

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The World Market for Agricultural or Horticultural Hand Tools Including Spades, Shovels, Mattocks, Picks, Hoes, Forks, Rakes, Axes, Bill Hooks, Pruners, ... and Sickles: A 2011 Global Trade Perspective

!±8± The World Market for Agricultural or Horticultural Hand Tools Including Spades, Shovels, Mattocks, Picks, Hoes, Forks, Rakes, Axes, Bill Hooks, Pruners, ... and Sickles: A 2011 Global Trade Perspective

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This report was created for strategic planners, international executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for agricultural or horticultural hand tools including spades, shovels, mattocks, picks, hoes, forks, rakes, axes, bill hooks, pruners, scythes, and sickles. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics that appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for agricultural or horticultural hand tools including spades, shovels, mattocks, picks, hoes, forks, rakes, axes, bill hooks, pruners, scythes, and sickles for those countries serving the world market via exports or supplying from various countries via imports. I do so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.

On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners approaching the world market face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying agricultural or horticultural hand tools including spades, shovels, mattocks, picks, hoes, forks, rakes, axes, bill hooks, pruners, scythes, and sickles? What is the dollar value of these imports? How much do the imports of agricultural or horticultural hand tools including spades, shovels, mattocks, picks, hoes, forks, rakes, axes, bill hooks, pruners, scythes, and sickles vary from one country to another? Do exporters serving the world market have similar market shares across the importing countries? Which countries supply the most exports of agricultural or horticultural hand tools including spades, shovels, mattocks, picks, hoes, forks, rakes, axes, bill hooks, pruners, scythes, and sickles? Which countries are buying their exports? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?

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